An Update on the Government Shutdown and the Tariffs Case скачать в хорошем качестве

An Update on the Government Shutdown and the Tariffs Case

There are two main topics that I want to talk about today. The first being the government shutdown, which is now the longest in US history. And I want to talk about the Supreme Court starting to hear the case around tariffs, which President Trump implemented earlier this year in the spring. So let's talk about the shutdown and what that means to investors, because a lot of people have lots of questions on this about what does it mean? We've really never seen a shutdown go this long before. We've definitely seen some long shutdowns in the span of 30 days plus. We're now day 37, I believe. 37 or 38, which makes it the longest shutdown in U.S. history. And this has really been caused by the filibuster that's been going on. And filibuster, for those of you that don't know what filibuster means, filibuster means it is a technique that is used by politicians to extend or delay passing certain legislation by typically very long speeches. So they will just argue about something or give a very long speech and they'll just sort of go in circles for hours at a time, which is done intentionally, even if their party has a majority agreement and they know legislation is going to be passed anyway, they will still typically do this filibuster just because they can or... they're trying to accomplish a different goal by delaying. it's really them just trying, politicians trying to put pressure on other parties to say, look, I'm intentionally extending this and because I'm extending it, we can't get other things done. So if we come to an agreement on what we really want to accomplish, we'll stop the filibuster. So President Trump has really urged, this has really been done by a lot of Republicans currently. President Trump has been urging a lot of Republicans to stop the filibuster. And again, the impacts we're going to see in the economy is really the FAA is going to start delaying flights, removing flights. We're going to see staffing shortages. We've seen pauses to things like SNAP, which are what a lot of people used to know as food stamps has been rebranded to snap. So a lot of day to day benefits and movement of money that comes out of the government is going to be affected. The market has been surprisingly resilient to this, I thought there might be a little bit more volatility around the extended shutdown, but the market has held up okay. And we're also in the midst of earning seasons and companies are starting to release a lot of their data, which has done well, especially with the AI sector. AI is doing really, really well. So I think that has something to contribute with the fact that even though there is the extended shutdown, the markets are still holding up without too many issues. Additionally, let's talk about the... Supreme Court case. So we haven't heard too much yet, but right now the Supreme Court from the questions that they've been asking and some of the conversations they've been getting into so far, they seem skeptical. At least that's what a lot of media outlets are reporting. If that ends up really holding any sort of weight when they make their final decision, I have no idea. But really where this can go is they can say President Trump implemented tariffs and they were illegal, or they can say that he acted within his presidential right to implement these powers under the International Emergency Economic Act. It's a little bit longer than that. It's like a five word term, but I can display it below in the comments. So really, that's where we're at. The Supreme Court is starting to hear the case. They seem a little skeptical at first. And if they rule that President Trump overstepped and the tariffs are illegal, then I would expect that we experience some market volatility because a lot of the tariffs and duties that we've collected will likely have to be paid back. And then all the deals that President Trump has negotiated will more or less fall apart. He'll have to go back and renegotiate deals. So we're going to talk a lot more about this really probably next week or the week after when the Supreme Court makes a final decision. But there's definitely a lot of potential volatility on the horizon. So more to come. Benjamin Stark, CFP® is a Financial Advisor and Director of Client Experience with Vision Retirement #tariffs #supremecourt #marketupdate