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The lie is that “low inventory” is mysterious. The truth: 3% → 7% rates created a lock-in wall, and sellers are rage-quitting their listings when the dream price doesn’t hit. That stalls move-ups, move-downs, and relocations, freezing demand. Add one labor shock and this slows… fast. In this breakdown I show: Record-low demand to start 2025 (existing home sales down ~40% from 2021) Payment shock math: the same home now costs ~$1,000/mo more vs. 2021–22 Withdrawals spike: ~42% of new listings yanked in Compass markets — the rage-quit effect Generational flip: median buyer age now 56 (repeat buyers 61) — boomers drive, Gen Z locks out South under strain: FL & TX inventory + cancellations rising; builders buying down to ~3–4% to move stock Cancellations: ~1 in 7 U.S. deals falling through; JAX hitting 25–30% in investor-heavy pockets Foreclosure filings ticking up as post-forbearance workouts tighten Luxury sales at decade lows; DOM, price cuts, and months’ supply trending up #housingmarket #realestate #floridarealestate