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. On February 20, 2026, the USS Gerald R. Ford crossed the Strait of Gibraltar as President Donald Trump’s public ten-day deadline for a new Iran deal began ticking down. The convergence of naval deployments, nuclear inspections, and diplomatic talks has created a narrow window in which military planning and negotiations now overlap. This investigation examines what the arrival of a second U.S. carrier strike group means for the strategic balance with Iran, and why the timeline surrounding the IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna matters. As enrichment disputes continue and negotiations unfold in Geneva and Oman, satellite imagery analyzed by the Institute for Science and International Security suggests Iran is reinforcing underground facilities near Natanz and at Parchin. We break down: – The significance of the USS Gerald R. Ford entering the Mediterranean – The IRGC Navy incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and drone interceptions in the Arabian Sea – Iran’s revised military doctrine and signals of possible preemptive posture – The debate over uranium enrichment limits and missile capabilities – The role of Diego Garcia, B-2 bombers, and the Massive Ordnance Penetrator – Oil market exposure if Hormuz is disrupted – The strategic calculations inside the Pentagon as negotiations approach a deadline This is not a prediction of war. It is an assessment of force posture, diplomatic positioning, and escalation risk at a moment when U.S.–Iran tensions intersect with global oil flows, regional missile deterrence, and international nuclear oversight. With the IRGC rebuilding missile capacity, enrichment disputes unresolved, and two U.S. carriers positioned within operational range, the coming days may determine whether negotiations produce constraints — or whether a new phase of confrontation begins. Sources Reuters – Coverage of U.S. carrier deployments and Iran tensions https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-... CBS News – Reporting on U.S. military readiness and Iran negotiations https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ Institute for Science and International Security – Analysis of Iranian nuclear facilities https://isis-online.org/isis-reports Tasnim News Agency (Iranian state media) – Statements from Iranian military leadership https://www.tasnimnews.com/en Chapters 00:00 The Carrier Moves 03:30 Ten-Day Clock 06:45 Hormuz Confrontation 10:00 Digging Deeper 13:30 Strike Capability 17:00 Iran’s Doctrine 20:30 Oil Shock Risk 23:30 Final Countdown #Iran #USIranTensions #StraitOfHormuz #MiddleEastSecurity #NuclearNegotiations #IAEA #IRGC #OilMarkets #GlobalSecurity #Pentagon #CarrierStrikeGroup #Geopolitics #BallisticMissiles #Natanz #GenevaTalks