Weekly Market Commentary (3/13) | Oil Volatility, Rising Core PCE & Potential Impact on Fed Rates скачать в хорошем качестве

Weekly Market Commentary (3/13) | Oil Volatility, Rising Core PCE & Potential Impact on Fed Rates

This week’s Weekly Market Commentary (3/13) with Alex Varner (Head of Research) and Alex Dippery (Research Analyst) examines the latest inflation data, oil volatility tied to geopolitical tensions, and what shifting economic indicators could mean for Federal Reserve policy. Key topics covered include: • Core PCE Reaccelerates: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose 0.36% month-over-month and 3.06% year-over-year, the fastest pace since March 2024, reinforcing concerns that inflation progress may be stalling. • Oil Shock & Geopolitical Risk: Military tensions impacting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices sharply higher, briefly touching $120 before stabilizing near $100, a development that could feed through into future inflation readings. • Fed Rate Path Repricing: Markets have shifted from expecting two rate cuts in 2026 to potentially just one, with the probability of no cuts increasing as inflation risks persist. • GDP Revision & Government Drag: The second estimate for Q4 2025 GDP was revised down to 0.65%, largely due to a sharp contraction in government spending, while consumer spending remained the largest positive contributor. • Labor Market Signals: The latest JOLTS report showed job openings rising to 6.95 million, while layoffs declined to their lowest level since March 2025, suggesting labor market resilience despite broader economic uncertainty. • Housing & Small Business Trends: Housing activity remains constrained by elevated mortgage rates while the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined for a second month, highlighting mixed signals across the broader economy. Click here to read this week’s full Weekly Market Note: https://www.mainmgt.com/wp/wp-content...