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Chuck Todd unpacks the fallout from Trump's State of the Union address and previews what's shaping up to be a pivotal primary season. He argues that the speech wasn't designed to be coherent — it was engineered for social media moments and base solidification, with Trump drafting off the popularity of others like the Olympic hockey team rather than making a case to swing voters, and echoing Biden's mistake of trying to sell a country that doesn't feel it on the economy. He breaks down the JD Vance "fraud czar" announcement and the immediate move to suspend Medicaid funding to Minnesota as classic base-juicing, then pivots to a sharp analysis of the Iran standoff: Trump's base won't tolerate a prolonged war but might accept limited strikes, Iran knows this and could rope-a-dope the administration, and you can't air strike your way to regime change. He argues that Cuba on the brink of societal collapse with Cuban Americans eager to help rebuild — represents a far easier foreign policy win that Trump is inexplicably ignoring. Timeline: 0:00 Initial fallout from Trump’s State of the Union speech 1:45 Trump’s focus is to solidify his base, not reach swing voters 3:00 Speech wasn’t coherent, it was meant for social media moments 3:45 Trump tried to draft on the popularity of others during speech 4:30 Like Biden, Trump tried to sell the country that the economy is working 6:30 Trump announced JD Vance as “fraud czar” 7:15 Vance announces they’ll suspend Medicaid funding to Minnesota 8:15 Trump isn’t politically nimble, but knows how to juice the base 9:15 Trump’s speech only played one note to his base 13:15 It’s tough to understand what Trump is up to with Iran 14:00 Trump’s base won’t accept a prolonged war with Iran 14:45 Iran knows Trump’s base isn’t on board, could rope-a-dope him 16:30 You can’t air strike your way to regime change… so what’s the plan? 17:45 25% chance of regime change, 25% chance it strengthens regime 19:00 Trump’s impatience is one of his worst political instincts 20:00 Cuba is on the brink of societal/regime collapse 20:45 Cuban Americans would jump at opportunity to rebuild Cuba 22:00 Cuba is a much easier potential foreign policy victory for Trump 23:15 War with Iran could be a massive resource drain on the U.S. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/t... Visit our website: https://thechucktoddcast.com/ Follow us on social media: https://x.com/chucktodd / thechucktoddcast / chucktodd / thechucktoddcast #politics #news #trump #vance #iran #cuba #economy #war