The Market Is Wrong About SAP скачать в хорошем качестве

The Market Is Wrong About SAP

Video Chapters 00:00 Introduction: Is the SAP Growth Story Dead? 01:52 Analyzing the Q4 Backlog Miss and Market Volatility 02:50 The Cloud Transition: Deceleration vs. Unit Economics 04:45 Scaling the Core ERP Suite: Growth at a Massive Scale 06:12 Margin Expansion and Pricing Power Analysis 07:24 The Corporate Lobotomy Thesis: High Switching Costs 08:31 SAP as the Operating System of Global Commerce 10:35 Data Gravity: The Structural Lock-in Effect 12:00 The Lollapalooza Effect: Convergence of Three Growth Forces 13:35 Customer Sentiment vs. Employee Engagement Metrics 14:55 Leadership Review: CEO Christian Klein’s Restructuring Strategy 17:15 The Margin J-Curve: Moving Beyond Transition Economics 18:40 Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) and Cash Flow Dilution 20:05 The "Cannibal" Buyback: Management's $10B Signal 21:55 Valuation Deep Dive: Reverse DCF and Price Targets 24:34 2030 Vision: Transitioning to Maturity Economics 25:35 AI Monetization Strategy: The Jewel Co-pilot Tax 27:05 Risk Assessment: Competition, UI, and Geopolitics 29:22 Final Verdict: Quality Score and Accumulation Strategy 30:20 Conclusion: Is SAP the Microsoft of 2015? 📈 My Broker: Interactive Broker Support the channel (no extra cost): ➡️ https://ibkr.com/referral/charles671 The market just punished SAP for a "backlog miss," but they missed the bigger picture: a €10 billion "Cannibal" buyback program and a switching cost moat so deep it acts like a "corporate lobotomy" for clients. Here is why the "NPS 9" red flag might be the only thing standing between this stock and a doubling of Free Cash Flow by 2030. 💎 The "Data Gravity" Moat: Why 87% of global commerce literally cannot afford to switch away from SAP. 📉 The "NPS 9" Risk: Why a plummeting Net Promoter Score suggests customers feel "forced" rather than "delighted"—and why it matters. 🧠 The "Lollapalooza" Effect: How Legacy Lock-in, Process Power, and Forced Migration are combining to print cash. 💰 Valuation Verdict: Our "Reverse DCF" analysis and why we see a Buy Zone between $190–$210. 🚀 The "Cannibal" Phase: The impact of the massive €10B share repurchase program on your future EPS. In this institutional-grade analysis of SAP SE, we deconstruct the transition from legacy licensing to the "RISE with SAP" subscription model. While the recent Q4 backlog miss caused a narrative crack, our analysis suggests the "Switching Cost" moat (Power 4) is widening due to data gravity. We explore the tension between a "forced migration" strategy that is hurting customer sentiment (NPS 9) and the undeniable financial power of the cloud J-curve, which is set to drive margins to 30%+. We also analyze CEO Christian Klein's capital allocation strategy, specifically the "Cannibal" behavior of buying back €10B in stock while trading at ~23x forward earnings. This is a classic case of a "Wonderful Business" facing temporary macro headwinds. // DISCLAIMER This video is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis may contain errors. Always do your own research.