BREAKING: Silver's First Notice Day Math DOESN'T WORK — 186M oz CLAIMED vs 88M oz In Vault скачать в хорошем качестве

BREAKING: Silver's First Notice Day Math DOESN'T WORK — 186M oz CLAIMED vs 88M oz In Vault

BREAKING: 186M oz CLAIMED vs 88M oz In Vault — Silver's First Notice Day Math DOESN'T WORK First Notice Day for the March COMEX silver contract is here, and the math is finally live: 37,162 contracts representing about 186 million ounces can now legally stand for delivery against roughly 88 million ounces of registered silver sitting in COMEX vaults. ​ This description breaks down why that matters and what the next 30 days could look like: Live delivery math vs shrinking vaults: recent warehouse data show total COMEX silver inventory around 366 million ounces, down about 31% from roughly 532 million in October 2025, with registered stocks slipping below 90 million ounces to about 88 million as of late February — a 40–50% collapse in just a few months, even as price fell from January’s highs. What First Notice Day actually is: you explain that today is not “instant default,” but the point where any March long who hasn’t rolled is now in the delivery window and shorts can issue tenders, so the real stress test is how many of those 186 million paper ounces roll, cash‑settle, or accept premiums to walk away vs how many actually insist on bars through the month. ​ ​ February’s warning shot: February — a minor month — already saw an extreme ~98% delivery rate, with roughly 4,700–4,900 contracts (about 23–25 million ounces) demanded for physical settlement, and one bank, Wells Fargo, issuing 228 of 229 notices in a single session, while January deliveries were over 49 million ounces; you connect that bank‑level behavior to what might happen when a major month like March comes under the same pressure. ​ Three plausible paths: Managed roll (most likely): big banks and dealers lean on Exchange‑for‑Physical (EFP) deals, cash premiums, and eligible reclassification to coax longs into London or later months, keeping registered above water and capping price in a broad range below about 95 dollars, while simply deferring the structural problem to May/July. ​ ​ Partial break: delivery demand runs hotter than the “managed” tools can comfortably absorb, registered drops toward or below 60 million ounces, CME hikes margins again, intraday swings hit 10–15 dollars, Shanghai’s premium (already running $20–$26 over Western spot) widens further, and the market grudgingly re‑prices into a higher $95–$110 band without a formal default. ​ Contract‑level delivery failures (tail risk): if registered metal is effectively spoken for before all standing delivery requests are satisfied, some contracts get pushed into forced cash settlement instead of metal, echoing the playbook from past stress episodes; COMEX as a system survives, but trust in paper price discovery takes a hit. How to track it in real time: you urge viewers to watch CME’s daily delivery reports (who issues and who stops), the registered line on CME’s warehouse stocks page, margin‑change bulletins, EFP activity, spot levels around key technical zones, and Shanghai’s premium as the month unfolds, rather than trading headlines about “shortages” or “nothing to see here.” ​ ⚠️ DISCLAIMER (for your YouTube description) This video is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Silver, futures, and related instruments are volatile and can result in significant losses, including loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.