Ecological Scenarios: Embracing Ecological Uncertainty for Climate Change Adaptation: June 12, 2025 скачать в хорошем качестве

Ecological Scenarios: Embracing Ecological Uncertainty for Climate Change Adaptation: June 12, 2025

In a rapidly changing environment, natural resource managers must determine how to steward ecosystems that are changing, often in unfamiliar and uncertain ways. Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Building on current methods that incorporate uncertainties in future climate to develop scenarios for climate change adaptation, our work informs how scenarios can better represent uncertainties in how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes. In this webinar, we present results from a working group process that identified principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties in scenario development. We provide examples of how qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future, drawing on preliminary results from an ongoing case study focused on the Nebraska Sandhills. We further highlight the need for accessible ecological projections and tools that can help practitioners assess and incorporate uncertainty in future ecosystem change to support climate change adaptation.