What AI Will Actually Do to the Economy With Noah Smith скачать в хорошем качестве

What AI Will Actually Do to the Economy With Noah Smith

Noah Smith is a writer and Substack blogger behind Noahpinion, known for his contrarian, data-grounded takes on economics, technology, and geopolitics. What you'll learn: Why the viral Citrini "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" post moved markets — and whether it should have The psychology behind why "AI causes 2008" scared Wall Street more than killer robots Why Noah thinks an AI-driven financial crisis is possible but unlikely How a productivity boom could paradoxically trigger a mild recession through "sticky prices" Why AI-enabled bioterrorism — not economic disruption — is Noah's biggest fear What Block's 4,000-person layoff and Mercury's hiring shifts reveal about AI's real impact on jobs Why software job losses in 2023-24 may have been driven by uncertainty, not AI capability Noah's take on deflation, GDP growth, and where inflation goes from here Why intellectual humility has been Noah's biggest edge as a forecaster The "dinosaur and the meteor" theory — why we're worrying about the economy while a much bigger threat flies overhead In this episode, we cover: (00:00) The meteor meme — AI's real threat vs. the economy (01:07) Introduction to Noah Smith (02:14) What the Citrini post actually argued (04:30) Why markets missed Covid — and what that tells us about AI (06:17) Why Citrini moved markets: the power of pattern matching to 2008 (07:51) Breaking down Citrini's financial crisis domino theory (08:38) Noah's verdict: possible but unlikely (11:04) Block lays off 4,000 — how does AI-driven unemployment play out macro? (17:42) How a productivity boom could cause a recession: sticky prices explained (19:46) Noah's real AI fear: vibe-coded bioweapons (24:55) Has bioterror surpassed China-Taiwan as Noah's top worry? (25:10) The economy today: inflation, deflation, and GDP (28:44) What Mercury's hiring strategy reveals about AI's effect on headcount (31:32) Why software job losses in 2023-24 may have been forward-looking uncertainty (34:38) The threat to blue collar jobs — are truck drivers next? (35:52) Why intellectual humility is Noah's competitive edge (39:26) The meteor meme closing: we created zombie gods for a 2.7% productivity boost -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4FHXFiO... Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... Subscribe to Founders in Arms Substack: https://substack.com/@foundersinarms Join the conversation on Tribe: https://join.tribechat.com/sR-wYn8zUH Follow Founders in Arms on LinkedIn:   / founders-in-arms   Follow Immad on X: https://x.com/immad Follow Raj on X: https://x.com/rajatsuri Follow Immad on LinkedIn:   / iakhund   Follow Raj on LinkedIn:   / rajatsuri