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Platinum deficit worsens beyond forecast, World Platinum Investment Council reports

This audio is brought to you by Astec Industries, a Global Leader in manufacturing equipment for infrastructure, including asphalt production, construction, and material processing, driving innovation and sustainability. The platinum market recorded a deficit of 995 000 oz for full year 2024, which is 46% higher than previously forecast, as total demand exceeded eight-million ounces for the first time since 2019 compared with supply at 7 293 000 oz. (Also watch attached Creamer Media video.) Investment demand rose by a whopping 77% year-on-year to 702 000 oz amid above-ground stocks sinking down to below four months of reliability. Investment demand propellers were exchange trade funds (ETF), final-quarter exchange stock inflows, and the supplier of legal tender coins in China launching a 1 kg platinum bar in addition to the platinum panda and platinum lunar series. Platinum's sustained consecutive annual deficits of almost one-million ounces in 2024 contain some investment flows related to the recent tariff-driven chaos but is largely structural in nature, World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) CEO Trevor Raymond has pointed out. Increases across all regions uplifted platinum jewellery demand by 8% in 2024, with jewellery forecast to grow in 2025 to a six-year high. Mine supply is forecast to decline by 5% in 2025 and global recycled supply continues to bite the dust. Encouragingly, hydrogen demand showed positivity by translating into platinum uptake, while automotive demand remained steady on higher-for-longer internal combustion engine vehicle levels. Mining Weekly put these questions to WPIC director of research Edward Sterck. (Also watch attached Creamer Media video.) How have the various geopolitical issues around the world affected platinum supply and demand? Geopolitics are centre stage right now. There's a huge amount of rhetoric and, in some cases, invective, which is influencing the movement of material and also how consumers are behaving. There's been some overtures for some kind of rapprochement between the US and Russia and there's been some speculation from people as to whether that would improve the flow of platinum, palladium, other platinum-group metals (PGMs) out of Russia to the world, and thereby ease any kind of temporary constraints. On our numbers, that isn't the case. We see Russian material continuing to flow into the market, and it's fully baked into our supply-demand estimates, so nothing really changes if that rapprochement does come to something. The other side of the equation, however, is tariffs, which are effectively a tax on the consumer in the country where they're enacted, and there's a risk that if the US does actually impose tariffs, it could increase the price of products and thereby decrease consumer demand. It's also worth noting that tariffs are fundamentally inflationary in their effects, because they increase the cost of products, so from an economic perspective, that could result in higher-for-longer interest rates in the US and also a stronger US dollar, both of which are somewhat negative for platinum demand, and, in terms of the strong US dollar, also arguably negative for US dollar-denominated platinum prices. How much of the strong investment growth in late 2024 was driven by tariff uncertainty and market turmoil? Investment demand was really rather fascinating to watch last year. We saw generally consistent bar and coin demand, if you aggregate smaller bars and coins and the larger ones out of China. But what really swung around was ETF demand. We saw strong inflows in the second quarter of the year, outflows in the third quarter, and then a return of demand in the fourth quarter. We also saw quite strong inflows into what we describe as exchange stocks, which are stocks held in approved warehouses by the futures exchanges like NYMEX in the US. These exchange stocks are used as collateral for backing positions in the futures market. We saw a very big inflow into the NYME...