The Real Bubble Is Coming: Why Bitcoin Is the Purest AI Macro Trade скачать в хорошем качестве

The Real Bubble Is Coming: Why Bitcoin Is the Purest AI Macro Trade

The core thesis: the AI build-out’s binding constraint is now power, not GPUs, and with gas turbine and transformer shortages we need hybrid solutions and grid flexibility. That pushes alpha toward utilities, grid equipment, storage, and flexible demand. I walk through the fastest-to-deploy stack (wind/solar + batteries) and why Bitcoin miners act like “virtual batteries,” monetizing off-peak power and curtailing on spikes, improving renewable project economics (ERCOT case). I also cover national-security reshoring (critical minerals, manufacturing), why small caps can catch up as AI capex diffuses, why utilities and energy can outrun consumer staples, and how agents, stablecoins, and coming tokenization expand crypto’s demand surface—one reason I still view Bitcoin as the purest AI macro trade. CHAPTERS 0:00 Market setup — best September in 15 years; vol falls; cut odds 2:24 Sentiment & flows — retail bid vs institutional skepticism 3:22 Micron/HBM debate — linear models vs exponential AI demand 6:31 Labor cooling — quits, temp hiring, hiring plans slide 8:25 “Every job changes” — Walmart/Accenture/Amazon; value of college debate 11:25 Frontier model benchmarks — ~50% task parity; urgent AI plans 13:12 “Bubble?” vs bottlenecks — few IPOs, faster AI payback, supply limits 15:26 Capex to revenue latency shrinks; VC risk still real 16:22 Researcher view — underestimating exponential progress 18:05 Agents arrive — Anthropic 4.5, Sora 2, OpenAI Pulse; agentic commerce 20:42 Shopify/Etsy checkout in ChatGPT; who loses share? 22:22 Corporate deals (Hitachi/OpenAI), CoreWeave; Teradyne demo with Claude 27:26 Rotation case — small caps, PMIs rising; power over GPUs 29:57 “It’s all about power” — turbines, transformers, interconnects 30:56 Watt-Bit spread; turbine shortages; grid stability risk 31:59 Unique AI load; hyperscalers as quasi-utilities 32:37 Hybrid solutions — storage + demand response including Bitcoin mining 33:53 Fastest to deploy — wind/solar + batteries; flexibility is king 34:58 Bitcoin miners = “virtual batteries”; peaker plant constraints 35:47 Storage names & moves; battery ETF note 37:10 Security & reshoring; critical minerals; utilities vs staples 40:26 Russell/PMI setup; global easing cycle 40:54 Best PMI trade: Bitcoin; why BTC links AI and energy 43:18 Seasonality; network effects, stablecoins, tokenization ahead 45:17 Bitcoin as pressure valve; inflation targets, cuts with weak jobs 46:15 Miner technicals; ERCOT/Yuri; China’s policy pivot on miners 50:33 Wrap & how to use these workflows KEY TAKEAWAYS Power is the choke point: GPUs are available or rentable; grid capacity and flexibility are scarce. Flex beats pure megawatts: storage + flexible loads (including Bitcoin mining) matter as much as raw generation. Diffusion trade: alpha broadens from mega-cap compute to utilities, grid gear, storage, and small-cap suppliers. Agents to commerce: OpenAI Pulse + Shopify/Etsy show assistants doing the shopping, pressuring ads and marketplaces. Bitcoin = AI macro hedge: sits where compute meets energy and benefits from network, agent, and tokenization rails.