Predict the Sunspot through Autoregressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model скачать в хорошем качестве

Predict the Sunspot through Autoregressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model

Sunspots are temporary cool and dark regions observed on the surface of the sun. These are a result of the extreme changes in the sun’s magnetic fields, and their presence leads to solar activities such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (Noss 2017). This study is mainly focused on modeling the monthly mean number of sunspots using Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. Particularly, the objectives of this study include (1) to provide descriptive statistics on the monthly mean number of sunspots using data from 1998 to 2016, (2) to identify candidate ARMA models, (3) to compare and contrast the results generated from various fitted models, and (4) to make 10 year forecasts using the models that are determined to be appropriate.