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How Soon Might Human Population Peak?

In this video, I explore factors that influence demographic projections, and how well (or not well) they have captured recent drops in fertility rates around the world (many factors contributing to the phenomenon). It does not seem implausible that population could peak and begin a decline before 2040 below 9 billion, even if standard projections put us over 10 billion around 2090. As a result, the second half of the 21st Century could be far different from the world to which we have become accustomed, in both positive and negative ways. More detail can be found at my Do the Math blog: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/tag/popula.... Chapter Content: 0:00 Intro 0:09 Population History 0:48 United Nations Projection 1:19 Extrapolating Growth Decline 2:37 Demographic Models: Fertility 4:35 OECD Fertility Range 5:16 Unanticipated Fertility Declines 7:33 Survival Model 9:03 Challenges to Survival 10:00 Alternate Fertility Story 11:00 Result of Alternate Model: 2040? 11:48 Implications: Economic, Trajectory, Ecology 12:50 Summary and Do the Math