Aleh Cherp and Anastasia Pavlenko, Feasibility of Transitions in Long-term Scenarios, скачать в хорошем качестве

Aleh Cherp and Anastasia Pavlenko, Feasibility of Transitions in Long-term Scenarios,

Aleh Cherp and Anastasia Pavlenko, Feasibility of Transitions in Long-term Scenarios, Host . Itay Fishhendler, March 2nd 2026. Hebrew University of Jerusalem Long-term scenarios play a central role in IPCC assessments and, more broadly, in mediating between climate science and policy. They underpin both the rationale for “net zero” targets and warnings about the risks of high-end warming. Yet despite decades of scientific advances in climate, economic, land-use, and energy modelling, such scenarios continue to face criticism for their highly abstract and often unrealistic representation of climate policy processes. We argue that these tensions stem from two distinct but frequently conflated purposes of scenarios: informing policy design and anticipating future policy trajectories. We propose a structured framework for representing policy in long-term scenarios centred on the concept of feasibility. We distinguish between two complementary approaches to feasibility assessment: an inside, mechanism-based perspective that analyses economic, political, and socio-technical constraints; and an outside perspective that draws on empirical reference cases to benchmark what has historically been achieved. Building on this distinction, we outline differentiated roles for scenarios: projecting probable futures, exploring plausible futures, and informing strategies that are both feasible and desirable. We illustrate the framework using examples from the global diffusion of renewable energy, coal phase-out processes, and the impact of geopolitical crises on the pace and direction of energy transitions. We conclude by outlining a research agenda aimed at integrating feasibility analysis more systematically into long-term climate and energy scenario development.