45 Ray Dalio “Challenging Times by 2029” — скачать в хорошем качестве

45 Ray Dalio “Challenging Times by 2029” —

Dalio's concern for the next three years (2026–2029) is rooted in the Long-Term Debt Cycle. He notes that when the cost of servicing debt exceeds the growth of income, a "beautiful deleveraging" is required, or a chaotic one will occur. The Debt Wall: Trillions in low-interest debt are being refinanced at 2026’s higher rates, sucking liquidity out of the system. Currency Debasement: As governments print money to fund deficits, the "real" value of cash and bonds drops, even if their "nominal" value stays flat. 2. The Simple Risk Plan: Stocks, Cash, and Real Assets Instead of trying to "time" the 2029 crash, Dalio suggests balancing your portfolio based on four economic "seasons": Stocks (The Growth Engine) The Risk: Stocks are highly sensitive to "Falling Growth." In a deleveraging, even good companies can see their prices slashed as liquidity dries up. The Strategy: Dalio suggests capping equity exposure (often around 30%) and focusing on Quality and Dividends. Avoid "bubble" sectors like over-leveraged AI firms or speculative tech that doesn't produce cash flow. Cash (The "Trash" Trap) The Risk: While cash provides safety during a stock crash, Dalio famously calls it "trash" because it loses 5–8% of its purchasing power annually in high-inflation environments. The Strategy: Use cash only for liquidity and short-term "dry powder." In your long-term 2029 plan, cash should be a minor holding, replaced by short-term inflation-protected securities (TIPS). Real Assets (The Wealth Shield) The Risk: Financial assets (stocks/bonds) often fail simultaneously during a currency crisis. The Strategy: Dalio allocates heavily (up to 15-20%) to real assets that hold intrinsic value: Gold: The "neutral" currency that carries no default risk. Commodities: Protection against rising prices and supply chain shocks. Real Estate (Income-Producing): Focus on assets with positive cash flow that can adjust rents with inflation.