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Tonight’s ALCS Game 3 between the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays takes place at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, with first pitch scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET on FS1. The Mariners carry a commanding 2-0 series lead after taking both games on the road, putting them just two wins away from the franchise’s first World Series appearance in history, as Seattle has never made the Fall Classic since their founding in 1977. ----- LINKS - PICK EMS: FREE TO PLAY WIN $100 - https://www.footballnationusa.com/pic... REBET: 💸 Get a 100% Deposit Match up to $100 - https://www.vaultsportshq.com/preferr... UNDERDOG: 🎁 Play $5 Get $50 - https://www.vaultsportshq.com/preferr... ACORNS: 🌳 Don't like gambling? Try investing instead 📈 - https://acorns.com/share/?shareable_c... ------ Series Landscape Seattle’s convincing play in Toronto flipped home-field advantage. The Mariners won Game 1, 3-1, behind stellar pitching and timely hitting, and followed up with a 10-3 blowout in Game 2, powered by Jorge Polanco’s three-run home run and Julio Rodríguez’s blast. Their lineup has scored 13 runs across the first two games and outhit the Blue Jays 17-8 in that span, reflecting their current offensive rhythm. Historically, teams leading 2-0 in a best-of-seven MLB series have gone on to win nearly 84% of the time, giving Seattle a statistical upper hand heading home. This is also their first ALCS appearance since 2001, when they lost to the Yankees, a reminder that the Mariners remain the only MLB franchise never to reach the World Series. Probable Pitchers George Kirby (SEA) vs. Shane Bieber (TOR) defines tonight’s matchup. Kirby, a precise right-hander, has been sharp all postseason, allowing three earned runs across 10 innings (2.70 ERA) and displaying elite control. During the regular season, he posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home, compared to a 5.16 ERA on the road, underscoring his comfort in Seattle. Bieber, making his second start since returning from injury, lasted just 2.2 innings in his first postseason outing, surrendering five hits and three runs (two earned) against New York. Once a Cy Young winner, Bieber must locate his fastball early to neutralize Seattle’s aggressive offense. Key Players and Offensive Trends Seattle’s postseason surge has been fueled by Cal Raleigh, who’s batting .357 with two home runs and five RBIs through seven playoff games, including a homer in Game 1 and two runs scored in Game 2. His ability to produce in high-leverage moments has elevated the lineup alongside Rodríguez and Polanco. Toronto’s offense, however, has stalled. Stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette have combined for two RBIs this series and zero extra-base hits—symptomatic of a club batting just .212 in the ALCS. The Jays must capitalize on runners in scoring position, an area where they’ve gone 2-for-15 so far. Statistical Edges Seattle Home Strength: 51–30 at T-Mobile Park in the regular season, their best since 2003. Toronto Road Struggles: 40–41 away from Rogers Centre. Recent Run Support: Mariners have averaged 5.3 runs per game across their last six. Seattle’s bullpen, led by Andrés Muñoz, remains lights-out, holding opponents below a .200 average this postseason. Toronto’s pen, conversely, has allowed seven earned runs in the ALCS. X-Factors Julio Rodríguez (SEA): Eight postseason hits already, thriving under pressure in front of the home crowd. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR): Still searching for his ALCS breakout; his ability to turn around inside fastballs off Kirby could drive Toronto’s comeback hopes. George Kirby: Seattle’s stoic ace-in-waiting has thrown 66% strikes this postseason—a key to controlling tempo against Toronto’s power bats. Prediction and Betting Outlook The Mariners enter Game 3 as -132 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Blue Jays sit at +109 underdogs. The total is 7 runs (Over -116/Under -105). Given Kirby’s consistency, Seattle’s home dominance, and Toronto’s road splits, the probability tilts toward the Mariners holding serve. Prediction: Mariners 5, Blue Jays 3. Expect Kirby to steady the pace through six innings while Raleigh and Rodríguez deliver key extra-base hits to break it open late. Seattle rides its momentum toward a 3-0 series lead and a potential sweep opportunity in Game 4.