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CAsToR 2021: Keynote Lecture with Kenneth E. Warner, PhD

Keynote Lecture with Kenneth E. Warner, PhD: “The Role of Simulation Modeling in Tobacco Research and Regulation: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow” From the CAsToR Symposium 2021: “Simulation Modeling in Tobacco Regulatory Science: Where are we and where should we go next?” (June 7 - 9 , 2021) Day One, Session One: “The Role of Simulation Modeling in Tobacco Research and Regulation: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow” ABOUT THIS PRESENTATION Introducing the symposium, this presentation will open with a brief description of the nature of simulation modeling and then consider its role in tobacco research and regulation. While a wide variety of modeling approaches can be used to evaluate the effects of variables, including policies, on outcomes of interest (such as smoking prevalence), simulation models offer the most flexibility to incorporate as much complexity as necessary (and possible) to describe such processes. Simulations work with both known parameter values (for example, the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes) and those with uncertain values (such as smokers’ responses to a ban on menthol in combusted tobacco products). The latter, among the most challenging but potentially most useful simulations, are addressed by Monte Carlo and sensitivity analyses (varying the values of important variables to assess the range of potential outcomes they may produce). This talk will illustrate past applications of simulation modeling in tobacco control research, noting the intended or possible regulatory applications of that work. It will then turn to contemporary modeling, including the work of CAsToR, considering its potential utility in assisting in the development of tobacco regulation. The presentation will conclude by contemplating the future application of simulation in the development or evaluation of tobacco regulations. ABOUT THIS PRESENTER Kenneth E. Warner, PhD: Avedis Donabedian Distinguished University Professor Emeritus of Public Health; Professor Emeritus of Health Management & Policy; Dean Emeritus of Public Health (University of Michigan) Kenneth E. Warner is the Avedis Donabedian Distinguished University Professor Emeritus of Public Health and Dean Emeritus at the University of Michigan School of Public Health, where he was on the faculty from 1972-2017. He served as Dean from 2005-2010 and as a department chair from 1982-88 and 1992-95. An economist, Dr. Warner earned his A.B. degree from Dartmouth College and M.Phil. and Ph.D. degrees from Yale University. Presented in over 300 professional publications, including 7 books, Dr. Warner’s research has focused on tobacco and health policy. Dr. Warner served as the World Bank’s representative to negotiations on the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. He also served as the Senior Scientific Editor of the 25th anniversary Surgeon General’s report on smoking and health. During 2004-05 he was President of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. He was a founding member of the Board of Directors of the Truth Initiative. Currently, he is a member of the FDA Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee and an elected member of the Board of Trustees of Northwestern Michigan College. Dr. Warner’s honors and awards include: the Surgeon General’s Medallion, conferred by Dr. C. Everett Koop in 1989; election to membership in the National Academy of Medicine in 1996; a Luther L. Terry Award for Exemplary Leadership in Tobacco Control in 2003; the Alton Ochsner Award Relating Smoking and Disease in 2010; and the triennial Doll-Wynder Award from the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco in 2017.

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