Diversification Can Fail When You Need It Most | Ted Hicks (Evidence-Based Investing) скачать в хорошем качестве

Diversification Can Fail When You Need It Most | Ted Hicks (Evidence-Based Investing)

Surviving the short term is often the price of admission for long-term success. In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Ted Hicks—portfolio manager, wealth manager, founder of Hicks & Associates Wealth Management, and author of Evidence-Based Investing—to unpack what “evidence-based” decision-making looks like in practice, especially in a choppy market environment. We discuss why many popular investing myths persist, how historical context can improve your market awareness, and why diversification can fail right when investors need it most. Ted also shares how he uses a simple, “stoplight”-style composite indicator to communicate risk and opportunity with clients—and why process matters more than predictions. You can check out Ted's book at https://theodorehicks.com/. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/fre... 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/rea... 🎯 Upgrade your market awareness with Seeking Alpha Premium https://marketmisbehavior.com/seeking... 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.b... 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook:   / marketmisbehavior   👉 Follow Dave on Instagram:   / marketmisbehavior   00:00 Restaurant investor vs. stock investor: the short-term exit problem 00:32 Introducing Ted Hicks + Evidence-Based Investing 01:52 “Survive the short term” vs. long-term investing reality 03:04 File the news: process over headlines and geopolitical noise 05:45 Economic data vs. the market as a leading indicator 07:19 Technical analysis as a history lesson + learning from past regimes 08:14 Why 1965–1979 matters (and why many investors never lived it) 09:44 Dot-com + GFC: “once-in-a-career” crises…again 11:19 Military history lessons for portfolio management 13:51 “Diversification fails you when you need it most” (and why) 15:22 2022: correlations to 1 and the limits of modern portfolio theory 17:21 Diversifying by strategies and positioning (not check-the-box allocation) 20:20 Aviation checklists and “fly the airplane” in investing 24:14 The VSSI “stoplight” indicator: simplifying signals + client communication 26:52 2026: key areas to watch (commodities, energy) + why outlooks are irrelevant 29:49 Raising cash as positions hit objectives (process, not prediction) 31:04 Late-cycle leadership awareness without forecasting 34:06 Closing thoughts + why this framework matters now The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice. Some of the links in this description and in the video may be affiliate links, which means you pay nothing more and it helps me to make Market Misbehavior awesome! As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. For full disclaimer, please see our website: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/dis.... * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *