How is the Stock Market Stuck Amid the US-Iran War? скачать в хорошем качестве

How is the Stock Market Stuck Amid the US-Iran War?

The stock market is stuck in place even as the US-Iran war rages, sending crude oil prices and the dollar sharply higher. What's going on here? 0:00 Markets wait for the next shoe to drop (seesaw day recap) 0:45 S&P 500 stuck at the post-Iran strike range low 1:35 Crude oil near $75: Hormuz “safe passage” pledge + Iran navy focus 2:25 Why the war is morphing into an inflation story 3:10 Gold fails to rally on geopolitics: rate-cut expectations get squeezed 4:10 Yields rise: 10-year move looks more convincing than stocks/gold 5:10 Dollar strength without a stock crash: yield support, not just “haven” 6:20 Oil → CPI lag: why next inflation prints matter 7:05 Bloomberg framework: geopolitics premium + oil scenarios ($65/$80/$110) 8:25 How $80 oil becomes the “new normal” (China cheap oil gets disrupted) 10:05 The pre-war setup: Venezuela, Iran unrest, Russian shadow fleet crackdowns 11:35 Hormuz risk + China’s backup supply problem (Gulf dependence) 12:50 Inflation impact math: +0.3% CPI at $80 oil, bigger if higher 13:40 Data check: S&P Global PMI—growth slows, price pressures still elevated 14:55 ISM services flips the script: hottest growth since 2022 + hiring improves 16:20 Inflation question: prices “cooler” in ISM, but pressures still above-average 17:05 Market pricing: ~2 cuts this year + growing odds of a 3rd next year 18:10 Fed vs market: Fed rhetoric hawkish since Jan minutes 19:10 Why stocks can’t break out: Powell’s October “don’t overprice cuts” hangover 20:05 The deeper driver: trade-policy uncertainty + AI supply chain fragility 21:25 The core tension: markets want cuts, oil shock makes cuts harder 22:25 “Coiled spring” setup: if cuts don’t come, risk breaks lower 23:05 Positioning update: short gold + short AUD (watching for momentum) 24:05 Still short GBP/EUR; USD breakout bias intact 24:35 New: tactical long Bitcoin via IBIT call spread 25:05 Still short risk (SPY/QQQ put verticals) + still long oil call spreads 25:55 Wrap + where to find the show (overtime / socials / subscribe) Helpful links: tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ FREE tasytlive Newsletters: https://info.tastylive.com/newsletters FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 Follow tastylive on X (Twitter): https://x.com/tastyliveshow #OptionsTrading #DayTrading #LiveTrading #FuturesTrading #StockMarket #TradingEducation #Investing #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy #FinancialEducation tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we’ll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.