Why Gold's Parabolic Move Is More Speculation Than Fear with Michael Kao скачать в хорошем качестве

Why Gold's Parabolic Move Is More Speculation Than Fear with Michael Kao

Guy Adami interviews Michael Kao (@UrbanKaoboy), discussing the historic moves in gold and silver, the debate over fiat debasement versus speculative positioning, and why charts showing central bank gold eclipsing Treasury holdings can be misleading because much of the change is price appreciation rather than new buying. Kao argues true de-dollarization is unlikely due to the lack of a rival fiat ecosystem with comparable liquidity and deep bond markets, and says a shift from Treasuries to gold as a reserve anchor would imply economic austerity and slower global GDP growth. They explore how geopolitics (including post-Ukraine reserve seizure fears) and Trump-related tariff and deficit narratives have fueled gold, while Kao outlines a contrarian view that Trump 2.0 policies plus AI could be deflationary and potentially restore productivity-driven disinflationary growth similar to the late 1990s; he also critiques CBO debt projections for assuming low productivity growth. The conversation covers AI’s disruptive impact on industry moats and equity multiple compression versus immediate default risk, touches briefly on Japan’s bond market and the yen carry trade, and examines the “sanctity” of large AI CapEx plans and whether AI expands total addressable markets or mainly drives cost cutting. Kao highlights his thesis from his piece on AI electrification: U.S. electricity demand may accelerate sharply after decades of flat growth, creating an energy bottleneck that increases reliance on natural gas (given limits to coal and nuclear), amplified by data center buildouts and LNG exports. He explains his preference for natural gas mineral strategies that distribute cash flow over trading commodities or owning E&P equities due to capital allocation risks, and notes recent oil spikes have often faded since 2022. Follow Michael on X: https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy AI, Electrification, and the Hidden Energy Bottleneck:    • AI, Electrification, and the Hidden Energy...   The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy: https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning... Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 1:30 - Fiat Pandora's Box 10:00 - Macro Confusion 17:15 - US Dollar Dominance 26:15 - Energy Sector 36:00 - AI CapEx 40:00 - What's Missing? — FOLLOW US Instagram:   / riskreversalmedia   Twitter: https://x.com/riskreversal LinkedIn:   / riskreversalmedia   #investing #stocks #stockmarket The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.