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Thomas Tool Tuesday: Making Sense of Ensembles

Ensemble models (like the GEFS, SREF, and HREF) are essential for modern forecasting, but they can be incredibly messy to look at. How do you take 50 different model runs and turn them into a clear, actionable forecast? In this episode of Thomas Tool Tuesday, we explore NWS DESI (Dynamic Ensemble-based Scenarios for IDSS), a powerful visualization tool developed by NOAA's Global Systems Laboratory. DESI is designed for "Impact-Based Decision Support Services" (IDSS). It allows forecasters to visualize the probability of specific risks, making it easier to communicate uncertainty to the public and emergency managers. In this video, you'll learn: What is DESI? Understanding the "Dynamic Ensemble-based Scenarios" concept. Mean Spread: How to visualize the model mean, and the uncertainty that comes with it. Probabilistic Soundings: How to interpret a sounding with a range of possibilities. Timing & Point Data: Using Box-and-Whisker plots to see the full range of possibilities for a single city. Best Use Cases: Why this is the "Go-To" tool for Winter Storms and Severe Weather setups. Link to the Tool: https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/ #Meteorology #WeatherForecasting #NOAA #NWS #EnsembleForecasting #WinterWeather #IDSS #Mizzou #ThomasToolTuesday #AtmosphericScience