Eyes on the 'Sell America' trade скачать в хорошем качестве

Eyes on the 'Sell America' trade

Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we need to keep an eye on the 'Sell America' trade, which until now has been more headlines that substance and mainly about China's divestment in US Treasuries. But the Greenland kerfuffle has triggered a serious rethink by many pension fund managers, and more are taking this action. But first, the week ahead will be a relatively quiet one locally on the data front, but we will get a big range of December banking sector data, allowing us to cap the 2025 year on a number of important metrics. In Australia, the key event will be Wednesday's CPI data where it is expected to rise to 3.6%, the final indicator before next week's RBA rate review. Globally, all eyes will be on the gold price and its expected push up through US$5000/oz which could come early in the week. And in the US, all eyes will be on the Fed and its January 29 meeting, amid increasingly contrasting takes by voting members on the appropriate rate path. But most things related to public policy are in turmoil in the US, and the Fed's position is just part of that. We will be watching for bond market reactions. Elsewhere, official interest rate decisions are expected in Canada, Brazil, and Sweden, and the Bank of Japan will publish meeting minutes. An don't forget it is a holiday today in the north of the North Island (Auckland Anniversary Day), and in Australia (Australia Day), In the first news up today, China released (https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/xwfb/rcxwfb...) its December FDI data overnight and it was negative again. For all of 2025 foreign direct investment fell -9.5%, following a sharp -24.7% fall in 2024 and that makes it the third consecutive year of contraction. December alone recorded a good pickup from November but even with that it was -7% lower than the December 2024 month. But at least it didn't shrink as it did in November from October. China also release minimum wage rate data that showed (https://www.mohrss.gov.cn/SYrlzyhshbz...)  27 of the country’s 31 provincial jurisdictions have increased monthly minimum wages over the past year, with half introducing double-digit rises. In an interview (https://english.news.cn/20260122/57b7...) with state media Xinhua, the Chinese central bank governor indicated that cuts to their interest rates and reserve ratio requirements are on the cards in 2026. Taiwan said industrial production (https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/populace/...) surged more than +21% in December from the same month a year ago, the strongest growth since May. For all of 2025 it was up +16.7%, so the latest activity is an acceleration. But their local retail sector (https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/populace/...) is not showing the same exuberance, up just +0.9% in December from a year ago but down -0.2% for all of 2025. Consumers there are prioritising saving over spending, just like in the country to their west. Japanese inflation (https://www.stat.go.jp/data/cpi/sokuh...) eased to 2.1% in December from 2.9% in November, the lowest since March 2022. Food inflation fell to a 13-month low of +5.1%, driven by the slowest rise in rice prices in 16 months. The Japanese January 'flash' PMIs (https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/H...) were quite positive with private sector output expanding at their quickest rate for nearly a year-and-a-half to start 2026. The Japanese central bank reviewed its monetary policy and no change (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci...) was made, held at 0.75% - because an election is imminent. But now inflation concerns seem to be easing too. But markets are on alert for official intervention to support the yen. In India (https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/H...) , their 'flash' January PMIs rose across both sectors, maintaining the very high rates of economic expansion there. We are starting to get the early January PMI reports for many key economies. The US factory version (https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/H...) was little-changed in a modest expansion and it was the same for their services sector. But both recorded slightly better new order flows. Both noted cost pressures from their tariff-taxes. But as you will note from below this expansion lags most of the other large global economies. The Conference Board's leading economic indicator tracking for the US isn't positive reading, with the latest update reporting (https://www.conference-board.org/topi....