A. David Paltiel & Rochelle Walensky,, Virtual COVID-19 Symposium: August 26 2020 скачать в хорошем качестве

A. David Paltiel & Rochelle Walensky,, Virtual COVID-19 Symposium: August 26 2020

A. David Paltiel, PhD, Professor, Yale School of Public Health/Yale School of Management & Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH, Chief, Division of Infectious Diseases, Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, "COVID-19 and higher education: What is the test we need to open college campuses?" University re-opening has been a contentious issue recently, and Drs. Paltiel and Walensky discussed statistical modeling they had done to anticipate how coronavirus may spread around college campuses. The most optimistic scenario is that exogenous infection entering a campus have an R0 of 1.5 over the course of one semester. The input parameters assume that students will largely adhere to mask-wearing and social distancing rules, but that violations will nonetheless occur. The single most powerful tool in combating spread is testing frequency. In the best case scenario, weekly screenings and isolation pools for infected students reduce the R0 to 1.5. The preferred strategy is the one that confers the greatest benefit without exceeding the maximum willingness to pay to avert an infection.