You're Missing the Regime Change | Liz Ann Sonders on the Vibepression Economy скачать в хорошем качестве

You're Missing the Regime Change | Liz Ann Sonders on the Vibepression Economy

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Liz Ann Sonders to discuss the evolving market and economic landscape heading into 2026. The conversation focuses on why this cycle feels fundamentally different, how instability rather than uncertainty is shaping investor behavior, and what that means for inflation, the labor market, Federal Reserve policy, and equity markets. Liz Ann breaks down the growing bifurcation across the economy and markets, the shift away from the Great Moderation era, and how investors should think about diversification, earnings, valuations, and AI-driven capital spending in a more volatile and fragmented environment. Main topics covered • Why today’s environment is better described as unstable rather than uncertain • The K-shaped economy and growing bifurcation across consumers, sectors, and markets • Inflation dynamics and why 2 percent may now be a floor rather than a ceiling • How deglobalization, supply chains, and tariffs are changing the inflation regime • The shifting relationship between stocks and bonds • Hard data versus soft data and what sentiment is really telling us • The labor market’s headwinds and tailwinds, including immigration and hiring trends • AI’s impact on productivity, jobs, and capital spending • The AI capex boom and how it differs from the late 1990s tech cycle • Earnings growth, valuation compression, and market broadening • Rolling recessions versus traditional economic downturns • Federal Reserve challenges under a conflicted dual mandate • Why factor-based investing matters more than sector or style calls Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why this cycle feels different 02:00 Uncertainty versus instability in markets 03:30 The K-shaped economy and market bifurcation 07:00 Market broadening, small caps, and diversification 09:00 Inflation measurement challenges and data reliability 12:00 Why inflation may stay above 2 percent 15:00 Stock and bond correlations across cycles 17:30 Labor market crosscurrents and immigration effects 20:45 AI, productivity, and entry-level job pressures 24:30 Sentiment versus fundamentals in markets 27:30 Retail trading, behavior, and market psychology 31:00 Rolling recessions and post-pandemic distortions 38:00 Technology, cyclicality, and sector rotation 40:30 The Fed’s policy dilemma and internal disagreements 45:00 AI capital spending and comparisons to the dot-com era 51:00 Earnings growth versus valuation expansion 55:00 Factors, GARP, and portfolio positioning for 2026