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More chart analysis and insights on our Telegram https://trading.capital.com/4qqfjCz Bitcoin’s past bull markets have delivered extraordinary returns, but they have also been followed by deep and painful drawdowns. In this video, we break down how Bitcoin performed after the 2016 and 2020 halvings, why both rallies ended with declines of more than 75%, and what the current cycle could mean for Bitcoin’s price outlook heading into 2026. Using the four-year Bitcoin cycle theory, we explore whether the market is approaching a typical late-cycle phase or if this time could be different. The analysis combines historical halving data, on-chain indicators, and key macroeconomic signals such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and recession probability models from the Federal Reserve. We also examine the growing role of institutional investors, including Bitcoin ETFs, and how their demand may be reshaping this cycle compared to earlier, retail-driven bull markets. Finally, we discuss how business cycle dynamics, industrial metals, and recession risks could influence Bitcoin’s next major move. This video is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and involve significant risk. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. Stay up to date with Capital.com for ongoing insights into Bitcoin, macro trends, and digital asset markets. *** CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79.58% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The material presented in this video is not intended for UK audiences. This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the products or securities to which it applies. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Capital.com (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Capital Com SV Investments Limited (“CCSV”) is registered in Cyprus with company registration number 354252. CCSV is regulated by Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) under licence number 319/17. Capital Com Australia Pty Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) under AFSL Number 513393. Capital Com Online Investments Ltd is a limited liability company (company number 209236B) registered in the Commonwealth of The Bahamas and authorised to carry on Securities Business by the Securities Commission of The Bahamas (“SCB”) with licence number SIA-F245. Capital Com Mena Securities Trading LLC is authorised and regulated by the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA), under licence number 20200000176.