Improving predictions of permafrost conditions by using data from climate models by Galina Jonat скачать в хорошем качестве

Improving predictions of permafrost conditions by using data from climate models by Galina Jonat

NSERC PermafrostNet seminar - Improving predictions of permafrost conditions by using data from climate models that centres the impacts of permafrost thaw by Galina Jonat (Carleton University). Permafrost predictions rely on models that simulate how the ground responds to changes in climate. These predictions are of limited use for local studies as climate model data does not capture small-scale variations and contains uncertainties and biases. While bias correction can improve how well the climate data matches local climate dynamics, these improvements do not always lead to improvements in the predictions of permafrost change produced by permafrost models. In this seminar, Galina will introduce a new way to select bias-corrected climate model data based on how well it represents permafrost conditions. She will use examples from two sites near Inuvik to show how this approach can help reduce uncertainty and improve predictions about how permafrost will change over time.