What Happens to Australian House Prices When Immigration Stops? скачать в хорошем качестве

What Happens to Australian House Prices When Immigration Stops?

In 2020, Australia closed its borders and net overseas migration collapsed to negative 85,000 people — the first recorded net outflow since the Second World War. Population growth fell to 0.1 percent. Every economist who blamed immigration for high house prices finally had their test. The result? House prices rose 20 percent in 18 months. So if stopping immigration doesn't crash the market, what does? In this video I reveal what is actually happening to the number that has been quietly holding Australia's housing market together — and why the next three years look nothing like the last thirty. WHAT YOU WILL DISCOVER: Why the COVID immigration experiment proved that interest rates matter more than migration in the short term — and what that means for 2026 How net overseas migration has already fallen 43 percent from its peak of 536,000 to 305,600 — and why nobody in mainstream media is connecting this to property prices The exact mathematics: every 100,000 new residents require 40,000 new dwellings — and what happens when that number keeps falling Why the impact of migration on property prices appears with a 2 to 2.5 year lag — meaning the 2023 migration surge is still pushing prices up now, but the 2024 and 2025 slowdown will hit in 2026 and 2027 Why Sydney is the most exposed capital city — debt-to-income ratio of 13.4 times, price-to-income ratio of 17 to 1, and absorbing the highest share of migrant arrivals of any Australian city Why Melbourne's outer suburbs are already showing the stress — postcodes like Broadmeadows recording mortgage arrears rates of 7 percent, the highest in the country Why Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide face a different but equally serious risk as internal migration fades and affordability walls approach The shift from permanent to temporary migration and why it is reducing effective housing demand faster than the headline numbers reveal Why the government's own Treasury projects net overseas migration will fall to 260,000 in 2025 to 2026 — nearly half the peak — and what that means for rental markets The one structural support still holding Australian prices up — and the political conditions under which it disappears WHO THIS VIDEO IS FOR: Sydney and Melbourne homeowners who need to understand how migration decline concentrates its impact on their specific markets Property investors currently holding or considering purchasing in major capitals Renters watching vacancy rates and wondering whether relief is finally coming Anyone trying to understand why Australian house prices have not followed Canada's 19 percent decline — yet Australians aged 40 and over who own property and want early warning analysis before the mainstream catches up TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 Introduction: The COVID Experiment Nobody Interpreted Correctly 3:15 The Result That Shocked Every Economist 6:40 The Mathematics of Migration and Housing Demand 10:20 The 43 Percent Decline Nobody Is Talking About 13:45 The Lag Effect: Why 2026 and 2027 Are the Years to Watch 17:10 Temporary vs Permanent Migration: The Hidden Demand Collapse 20:30 Sydney: The Most Exposed Market in Australia 24:15 Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide: Different Risks, Same Direction 28:40 The Three Pillars Holding Australian Prices Up — And Which Two Are Weakening 32:10 What Happens Next: The Honest Assessment 35:45 Final Warning: The Question Every Property Owner Needs to Answer DISCLAIMER: This video presents my personal analysis based on publicly available data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council, the Centre for Population, and the Australian Financial Review. This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult qualified professionals before making property or investment decisions. DATA SOURCES: Australian Bureau of Statistics — Overseas Migration 2024-25 Australian Bureau of Statistics — National State and Territory Population June 2025 Reserve Bank of Australia — Housing Market Cycles and Fundamentals Speech 2024 National Housing Supply and Affordability Council — State of the Housing System 2025 Centre for Population — 2025 Population Statement Australian Institute of Health and Welfare — Profile of Australia's Population #AustraliaHousing #ImmigrationAustralia #HousingCrisis #PropertyMarket #AustralianEconomy #MortgageStress #HousingAffordability #PropertyCrash #SydneyHousing #MelbourneProperty #RBArates #HousingMarket2026 #AustraliaAlert #NetOverseasMigration #PropertyInvestment