Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs | Philip Tetlock скачать в хорошем качестве

Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs | Philip Tetlock

Why are so many experts so wrong, yet people keep listening to them? Who really is worth listening to about the future? The author of" Expert Political Judgement" builds on Isaah Berlin's characterization of judgment modes into Hedgehogs (who know one big thing) and Foxes (who know many things). Hedgehogs don't notice and don't care when they're wrong; that's why they're so compelling. Foxes learn. "Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs" was given on January 26, 02007 as part of Long Now's Seminar series. The series was started in 02003 to build a compelling body of ideas about long-term thinking from some of the world's leading thinkers. The Seminars take place in San Francisco and are curated and hosted by Stewart Brand. To follow the talks, you can: Subscribe to our podcasts: http://longnow.org/seminars/podcast Explore the full series: http://longnow.org/seminars More ideas on long-term thinking: http://blog.longnow.org The Long Now Foundation is a non-profit dedicated to fostering long-term thinking and responsibility. Our projects include a 10,000 Year Clock, endangered language preservation, thousand year+ data storage, and Long Bets, an arena for accountable predictions. Become a Long Now member to support this series, join our community, and connect with our ongoing work to explore and deepen long-term thinking: http://longnow.org/membership Like us on Facebook:   / longnow   Follow us on Twitter:   / longnow   Subscribe to our channel:    / longnow