Air Cargo Unpacked: Launch Episode | Geopolitical Chaos, CNY Outlook & IATA's 2026 Forecast скачать в хорошем качестве

Air Cargo Unpacked: Launch Episode | Geopolitical Chaos, CNY Outlook & IATA's 2026 Forecast

#AirCargo #FreightMarket #SupplyChain Air cargo market analysis for 2026: Chinese New Year impact, MD-11 freighter groundings, and how Shein & Temu are reshaping global air freight. This episode features exclusive data from the Baltic Exchange Air Freight Index, powered by TAC Index, revealing tight capacity and potential rate pressure ahead of peak season. In this launch episode of Air Cargo Unpacked, Mike King and Neel Jones Shah (ex-Delta, United, Flexport) break down the forces reshaping air cargo markets with exclusive TAC Index data from Neil Wilson and IATA's 2026 outlook from Brendan Sullivan, Global Head of Cargo. KEY TOPICS COVERED: 🌍 GEOPOLITICAL CHAOS & AIR CARGO RESILIENCE Why 2026 started with unprecedented uncertainty - from Greenland tensions to escalating trade wars - yet China posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus. We explore which types of chaos benefit air freight and which threaten growth. 🧧 CHINESE NEW YEAR 2026 TIMING IMPACT CNY falls 2.5 weeks later than 2025, reshaping demand patterns. What forwarders, carriers, and shippers should expect in the lead-up, during the shutdown, and in the restart period. Could tight capacity create a CNY mini-peak? 📦 E-COMMERCE AFTER DE MINIMIS How Shein and Temu adapted after the US ended the $800 exemption. Where e-commerce volumes are flowing now (South America, Europe, Africa) and why e-commerce "finds its way like a river" regardless of barriers. ✈️ MD-11 FREIGHTER CRISIS 60 aircraft grounded after fatal crash – representing a significant 8-10% share of the global wide-body freighter fleet. How integrators are scrambling for 767 and 747 replacement capacity and what this means for market tightness. 📊 EXCLUSIVE TAC INDEX MARKET DATA Neil Wilson, Editor of TAC Index, breaks down: • Peak season 2025 performance vs 2023-2024 • Capacity constraints from freighter shortages • Taiwan-Europe and Taiwan-US strength (semiconductor boom) • Intra-Asia rates up 23% year-on-year • Why the market remains tight despite recent rate softness 🎯 IATA'S 2026 FORECAST Brendan Sullivan, IATA's Global Head of Cargo, identifies: Three Biggest Headwinds: • Capacity constraints (aircraft backlog at 11x annual deliveries) • Regulatory complexity and security friction • Economic uncertainty and trade volatility Three Biggest Opportunities: • Digitalization (IATA's One Record standard) • E-commerce growth (80%+ of cross-border shipments by air) • Agility as competitive advantage in fragmented trade environment ⚠️ THE CAPACITY CRUNCH REALITY Why tight capacity and limited flexibility for shippers will define 2026. How the aircraft backlog, conversion feedstock shortages, and MD-11 groundings are constraining supply. This is monthly market intelligence for freight buyers, logistics managers, procurement professionals, and anyone moving cargo by air. FEATURED GUESTS: • Neel Jones Shah - Air cargo veteran (ex-Delta, United, Flexport) • Neil Wilson - Editor, TAC Index • Brendan Sullivan - Global Head of Cargo, IATA Exclusive data from the Baltic Exchange Air Freight Index, powered by TAC Index. LINKS: 🔗 TAC Index: https://www.tacindex.com 🔗 Ontegos Cloud: https://www.ontegos.cloud/ 🔗 Subscribe to Air Cargo Unpacked: [your subscription link] Produced with the support of Ontegos Cloud - the freight forwarder profitability specialist. #AirFreight #ChineseNewYear #Ecommerce #IATA #TACIndex #FreightBuyers #CargoMarket #GlobalTrade #Semiconductors #FreightForwarding #Aviation #LogisticsNews #SupplyChainManagement #CargoIntelligence #AirCargoNews Time stamps 00:00 Introduction & Welcome to Air Cargo Unpacked 00:30 Geopolitical Chaos: Greenland, Venezuela, Iran & the Red Sea 02:00 China's Record $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus Explained 04:00 E-commerce as a River: Finding Routes Despite Trade Wars 06:00 Does Air Cargo Thrive on Chaos? 08:00 End of De Minimis: Impact on Shein, Temu & E-commerce Volumes 11:00 2026 Vertical Focus: AI, Semiconductors & Taiwan Trade Deal 14:00 TAC Index Exclusive: Peak Season Analysis & Rate Trends 18:00 Taiwan Strength, MD-11 Groundings & Capacity Constraints 21:00 Chinese New Year Outlook: What to Expect in February 25:00 Aircraft Maintenance & The Aging Freighter Fleet 28:00 IATA's Brendan Sullivan: Top Headwinds & Opportunities for 2026