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COMPASS 2025-10-15: Jeremy Klavans, Rosenstiel School "The Signal-to-Noise Error in Decadal Regional Climate" To support informed decision-making in a changing world, climate scientists would like to offer detailed predictions of near-term, regional climate changes. It is widely assumed that near-term changes in regional climate are primarily generated by variations internal to the atmosphere-ocean system, implying that there is limited predictability to guide this decision-making. However, using extraordinarily large ensembles of multiple climate models, we show that there is a significant role for externally forced variability in decadal modes of regional climate (e.g. AMV, NAO, and PDO) and their impacts, including changes in the environment in which hurricanes develop as well as the atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for regional drought. This newfound role for external forcing in these decadal modes was previously obscured by models' erroneous penchant for underestimating the amplitude of externally forced multidecadal modes relative to internally generated noise. We propose that accounting for and resolving this signal-to-noise error in climate models will unleash new predictive skill for critical regional climate changes.