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Lewis Dijkstra takes the LSE stage again to share his insights on population growth and stresses the role of natural change as the dominant source of urban growth when using a harmonised definition of urban dwellings (which accounts for reclassification). Many studies acknowledge that national definitions of urban areas are not harmonised, but assume that they are similar enough that they can be combined. This presentation shows that national definitions radically disagree whether towns should be classified as urban or rural. This difference is far from marginal, but leads to fundamentally different conclusions about past and future urbanisation. For example, using a harmonised definition of urbanisation, called the Degree of Urbanisation, reveals a weaker link between the urban population share and economic development or structural transformation. It also leads to radically different projections of urban population and urban land. Projections based on national definitions or a building-based definition come to far higher projections of changes in urban population and land as compared to projections based on the Degree of Urbanisation. Lastly, using the Degree of Urbanisation we can decompose urban population growth into natural change, net-migration and reclassification. This shows that natural change is the dominant source of urban population growth followed by reclassification while migration plays the smallest role. In short, using a harmonised definition challenges many of the long held assumptions and predictions about urbanisation and encourage us to reconsider many policy recommendations. Learn more at https://www.lse.ac.uk/canada-blanch/e... #urbanisation #lecture #lse #rural #populationpolicy #populationstatistics #populationtrends #geography #cañadablanchlse #migration #economicgeography