Why 7.9% Returns Beat 13.9% Yields: The "Fool’s Yield" Trap | Greg Obenshain (Verdad Capital) скачать в хорошем качестве

Why 7.9% Returns Beat 13.9% Yields: The "Fool’s Yield" Trap | Greg Obenshain (Verdad Capital)

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗱𝗼 𝟭𝟯.𝟵% 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻 𝗟𝗘𝗦𝗦 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟳.𝟵% 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀? 📉 Greg Obenshain (Verdad Capital) reveals the "Fool’s Yield" trap and why reaching for yield can negatively impact credit portfolios. In this episode of 𝗙𝗶𝘅𝗲𝗱 + 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴, we deconstruct the quantitative reality of the credit markets. Greg explains his transition from a fundamental PM at 𝗔𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼 to building a systematic process that proves why High Yield is a savings vehicle, not "equities in drag." 📊 𝗞𝗘𝗬 𝗜𝗡𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗛𝗧𝗦: • 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝟳.𝟵% 𝘃𝘀. 𝟲.𝟴% 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: Why Double-B bonds consistently outperform Triple-Cs despite higher "promised" yields. • 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗶𝘇𝗲 𝗙𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿: Why Total Assets is the #1 predictor of whether a company will actually pay you back. • 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗶𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵: How Verdad uses clinical trial data and specialist ownership to find alpha in the market's most volatile sector. • 𝗟𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗬𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱: A framework for calculating what you actually keep vs. what you were promised. ⏱️ 𝗧𝗜𝗠𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗠𝗣𝗦: 00:00 Quant Credit - Greg Obenshain 01:01 Greg's Journey: Fundamental PM to Quantitative Credit 07:26 Who Should Invest in Credit: Medium-Term Certainty Focus 11:05 High Yield vs Equity Return Distributions Explained 14:01 Yield vs Actual Returns: Why BBs Beats Lower Ratings 16:39 Loss Yield Concept and Duration as Credit Leverage 20:02 Portfolio Construction: Universe and Cyclical Adjustments 28:22 Multifactor Credit Model: Value, Momentum, and Quality Factors 35:31 Key Model Drivers: Size Factor and TEV-to-Debt Insights 41:26 Portfolio Turnover 44:18 Corporate Actions Impact on Bond Returns 48:29 Model Edge: Excels Avoiding Losers vs Chasing Winners 50:55 2026 Outlook: Tight Spreads, Quality Tilt 52:48 Verdad's Biotech Quant Model: Inverted Factors + Clinical Trials 01:00:35 Quant Success: Process + Common Modeling Pitfalls 01:04:32 Verdad Capital Research Resources and Episode Close 🔍 𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗔𝗡𝗔𝗟𝗬𝗦𝗜𝗦: https://open.substack.com/pub/fixedfl... 🔥 𝗦𝗨𝗕𝗦𝗖𝗥𝗜𝗕𝗘:    / @fixedfloating   📌 𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗡𝗘𝗖𝗧 𝗪𝗜𝗧𝗛 𝗨𝗦: LinkedIn:   / fixed-floating   Twitter:   / fixedfloating   Substack: https://fixedfloating.substack.com/ Greg's Research: https://verdadcap.com ⚠️ 𝗗𝗜𝗦𝗖𝗟𝗔𝗜𝗠𝗘𝗥: Fixed + Floating is for informational purposes only. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Host/guest views are their own. Consult professionals before investing. #QuantCredit #SystematicInvesting #HighYield #FixedIncome #CreditInvesting #FactorInvesting #BondMarket #QuantitativeFinance #AssetAllocation #VerdadCapital #GregObenshain #PortfolioManagement #InvestmentStrategy #CreditAlpha