Summertime Thermal Risks and Energy Poverty in Aotearoa’s Low-Income Housing скачать в хорошем качестве

Summertime Thermal Risks and Energy Poverty in Aotearoa’s Low-Income Housing

Summertime Thermal Risks and Energy Poverty in Aotearoa’s Low-Income Housing: Current Conditions and Future Projections Symposium 2026 Speaker: Zhiting Chen New Zealand Centre for Sustainable Cities & He Kāinga Oranga - Housing and Health Research Programme, University of Otago, Wellington Authors: Zhiting Chen, Kimberley O'Sullivan, Nevil Pierse Summers in Aotearoa New Zealand are growing more complex as climate change accelerates—characterised by rising heat, persistent humidity, and the continued presence of cold–damp conditions within the same season. This study draws on indoor temperature and humidity monitoring data collected from 542 low-income households across the country between 2020 and 2024 to assess current summertime overheating risks and project future risks under climate change scenarios. Using CIBSE TM59 criteria, 38% of homes experienced daytime overheating and 56% experienced nighttime overheating during the monitoring period. By 2100, these shares are projected to rise to 40% (moderate-emissions scenario, SSP2-4.5) and 43% (high-emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5) for daytime, and to 76% and 89% for nighttime, respectively. Accounting Aotearoa’s high humidity reveals a larger heat-health concern: 90% of homes already recorded periods at or above the Heat Index “Caution” level, with 98% projected to record such conditions by 2100 under SSP5-8.5. Notably, 71% of homes were affected by cold–damp conditions during the summer months (temperature less than 18 °C and relative humidity greater than 60%), and 44% are projected to continue experiencing such conditions by 2100, even under the high-emissions scenario. These findings show that many low-income households face both heat and cold–damp exposures in summer. As climate change accelerates, related health risks and energy hardship are likely to intensify, with more frequent and extended heat exposures while cold–damp conditions persist. Building thermal resilience and reducing inequities require year-round indoor thermal standards, energy-efficient housing designs, and targeted energy-affordability measures.