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Dubai built one of the most audacious economic experiments in modern history — a city with almost no oil, no permanent population, and no geographic buffer, running on a single airport, a single port, and the global belief that none of it mattered. The entire model depended on selling one thing: the perception of safety and stability in an inherently unstable region. That flywheel — tourism funding real estate, real estate funding landmarks, landmarks attracting more tourists — ran beautifully for three decades, until February 28, 2026, when Iranian retaliation for a US-Israeli strike on its nuclear infrastructure targeted not Dubai's military capacity, but its brand. Drones hit the Burj Al Arab, missiles damaged the airport and port, and a strike on an AWS data center killed the city's AI hub ambitions overnight. The expat workforce, 90% of the population with no citizenship and no reason to stay, did the math and left. Property values crashed 30%, international banks evacuated their offices, and visitor spending evaporated at $600 million a day. Unlike the 2008 crash, which was a balance sheet problem Abu Dhabi could bail out, this is a geography problem — and with Riyadh now actively competing for the same capital and talent, Dubai's road back is far less certain.