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Mobility vs Epidemics

Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad, SRH University of Applied Sciences In this talk, I will explore “Gravity and the Big Bang in the Context of Epidemics” and discuss how human mobility shapes the spread of epidemics—and how epidemics, in turn, reshape mobility. The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped daily life, altering not only health but also how people move through space. Using aggregated mobility data from parks in Washington State, we examined how visitation patterns changed before and during the pandemic. We found that the gravity model— classic tool in spatial interaction modeling—accurately predicted park visitation across different income groups and geographic scales. We observed that higher-income residents tended to broaden their recreational activities, while lower-income residents restricted their options [1]. In another study, we developed a mathematical framework for modeling epidemic dynamics that accounts for both local and long-distance mobility within a metapopulation network. By linearizing the system, we can identify the “Big Bang” of an epidemic—its origin and initiation time. Using a new concept of effective distance, we demonstrate that epidemic spread follows a universal geometric pattern. This prediction was validated using data from both the COVID-19 and H1N1 outbreaks. Our framework, relying only on mobility data and active case counts, provides new insights into contagion dynamics and offers a foundation for designing public health policies that better anticipate and mitigate epidemic spread [2]. 1. Ghadiri, Z., Mashhadi, A., Timme, M. et al. Recreational mobility prior and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Commun Phys 7, 55 (2024). 2. Babazadeh Maghsoodlo Y, Safaeesirat A, Ghanbarnejad F. The Big Bang of an epidemic: a metapopulation approach to identify the spatiotemporal origin of contagious diseases and their universal spreading pattern. Sci Rep 15, 1 (2025). Thursday 9th October, 2025