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(Conversation recorded on December 18th, 2025) Collapse has long been discussed in the public imagination as something that happens suddenly, immediately turning the world upside down. But history shows that collapse is more often characterized by the slow unraveling of a civilization. Usually, this is due to some combination of resource scarcity, economic stagnation, and compounding disruptions to productive capacity – yet it’s barely perceptible in the day-to-day lives of the people within it. What are the signs that we could be living through such a moment right now, and if we are, how does history tell us to prepare for what’s to come? Today, Nate is joined by Balázs Matics, the author of the popular Substack blog The Honest Sorcerer, to explore the systemic reasons behind civilization's potential collapse, the importance of energy security, and the growing effects of geopolitical instability. Balázs emphasizes the overlooked importance of industrial inputs such as diesel fuel, and the implications of this as more parts of the world face resource scarcities. Together, they also discuss the possibilities of more localized production and communities rooted in compassion and cooperation as ways to navigate a post-growth future. As economic, geopolitical, and resource issues become more pressing, what will this mean for the future of environmental concerns such as global heating? What economic and industrial signals should governments actually be paying attention to in order to understand the health of a society? Finally, how can the humans paying attention to this story open up discourse where they live and start sowing the seeds of more resilient communities, even as the web of global complexity unravels? About Balázs Matics: Balázs Matics is the author of the Substack blog The Honest Sorcerer where he writes on the topics of energy, economics, industrial materials, and other matters relevant to the future of civilization. He is located in Eastern Europe, where he is an industrial product engineer by training and has two decades of experience in manufacturing, supply chain, and project management at various multinational corporations. Having been involved in a number of international projects and after completing a 2 year post-graduate leadership program in supply chain and logistics, he has developed a unique understanding of the interconnected nature of our world and technologies. Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.co... Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie: • The Great Simplification | Film on Energy,... --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future: https://www.thegreatsimplification.co... Join our Substack newsletter: https://natehagens.substack.com/ Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners: https://www.hylo.com/groups/the-great... --- 00:00 - Introduction 03:12 - Systemic Collapse and Energy Constraints 10:49 Europe's Fragility and Energy Geopolitics 23:39 Global Oil and Diesel Dynamics 31:20 Geopolitical Shifts and Energy Security 37:27 Implications of Energy Decline 39:09 Economic Instability in Europe 40:10 Global Supply Chain Vulnerabilities 43:28 Future of Engineering and Local Solutions 46:42 Degrowth and Capitalism's Adaptation 49:49 Psychological and Community Challenges 54:03 Role of AI in Engineering and Society 56:36 Advice for Policymakers and Philanthropists 01:00:15 Personal Reflections and Advice 01:10:13 Closing Thoughts and Future Topics