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Are we heading toward a recession—or just stuck in macroeconomic purgatory? In this episode of Excess Returns, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler sit down with Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, to explore the uncertain territory between headline-driven panic and hard data reality. From the implications of sweeping tariffs to the capital account war no one's talking about, Cameron offers one of the sharpest macro takes we've heard. We cover where the market might go next, how investors should respond to volatility, and what signals to trust in a confusing environment. Topics Covered: Why we’re in a “no man’s land” between tariffs and hard data The potential economic fallout of 145% tariffs on China Capital account war: Why treasury demand may be fading What the collapse in shipping and trucking data tells us How margin compression could trigger job cuts The case for value over growth after a Mag 7 blow-off Using technicals, sentiment, and positioning to spot turning points Why quality stocks may beat traditional defensives Whether hedging is worth it vs. holding T-bills Practical strategies for rebalancing through market chaos Timestamps: 00:00 – Opening macro setup: tariffs, soft data, and no man’s land 04:00 – Tariffs, inflation, and the Wiley Coyote economy 07:00 – What freight and supply chain data reveal 10:00 – Capital account war and treasury demand 14:00 – Why the dollar may be structurally weaker 18:00 – When do international stocks outperform the US? 22:00 – Mag 7 blow-off top and value rotation 26:00 – Advertising, operating leverage, and economic sensitivity 30:00 – Retirement flows and retail equity exposure 34:00 – Using sentiment and technicals to spot flushes 37:00 – Volatility, flush metrics, and how to buy during fear 41:00 – Quality over defensiveness in portfolio construction 43:00 – Hedging vs. holding cash vs. behavioral support 45:00 – Personalized rebalancing strategies for different clients 47:00 – Cameron’s one investing belief that her peers would disagree with 49:00 – The one lesson Cameron would teach the average investor 50:00 – Where to follow Cameron and read her work