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Russian Casualties & Force Generation - Losses, Recruitment & Sustaining the war in Ukraine

Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: https://www.piavpn.com/Perun Larger, but older, is probably a fair summation of the Russian (and Ukrainian) military in 2025 as compared to 2022. I've often focused on questions of equipment or economics rather than manpower regarding the war in Ukraine - in part because of how hard casualties and recruitment are to estimate. With the war now approaching the end of its third year however, I thought it was necessary to bring together some of the data we have to look at the Russian recruitment and casualty story since Feb 2022. I do however also want to include an illustrative warning. The challenge with trying to bring together multiple estimates is we can't always be sure when estimates are independent vs when they derive from each other The Russian sources for example are likely drawing on a similar dataset or talking points - and the UK MoD figures included in this episode appear to reference Ukrainian numbers. That should sound a massive note of caution on how to approach these numbers. Patreon:   / perunau   Reading and Sourcing (Partially complete at time of upload as I do not currently have access to my research PC, please consider link source and potential risks before clicking) : IISS Russian casualty and inflow estimates https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/... Mediazona obituary tracking: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05... Mediazona recruitment tracking https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/12/... RUSI - Russian military objectives and capacity in Ukraine through 2024 https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-rese... RUSI - Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine https://rusi.org/explore-our-research... CEPA - Russia’s Year of Truth: The Soldier Shortage https://cepa.org/article/russias-year... Indian recruits in Russian army https://www.dw.com/en/russia-ukraine-.... Featured article on Andrey Perlov & other cases https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdr... Jamestown Foundation, Pavel Luzin - Shoigu has promised combined armies, divisions & brigades https://jamestown.org/program/shoigu-... Medvedev claimed recruitment figures: 2024 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/... 2023 https://www.rt.com/russia/586931-russ... Putin claimed recruitment levels 2023 http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/73035 http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/75887 2024 https://tass.com/defense/1888171 Russian reporting on the changing staffing levels of the Russian military https://tass.ru/info/19436809 Russian reporting on changing fitness categories https://tass.ru/obschestvo/23045717 UK MOD 790,000 Russian casualties figure https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/brita... Discussion of potential double counting https://jamestown.org/program/russian... Source for Trump figure on Russian fatalities https://www.politico.eu/article/donal... Russian mobilisation and 6,000 fatalities claim https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/... Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions. Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character. There are a few times in this video where a lazy use of KIA creeps in instead of the more correct 'fatalities' Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:03 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:25 — Caveats & Methods 00:04:40 — Russian Manpower Phases 00:22:58 — Charting the Phases 00:25:48 — Changing Demographics 00:33:33 — Inflows 00:44:10 — Estimating Outflows 00:55:12 — the Way Forward 01:01:59 — Channel Update