Latest renewables survey points to strong 220 GW development pipeline скачать в хорошем качестве

Latest renewables survey points to strong 220 GW development pipeline

The latest edition of the South African Renewable Energy Grid Survey (SAREGS) has again confirmed that there is a strong and growing development pipeline of solar PV, wind, battery and hybrid projects across the country. The survey is conducted yearly by the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA) in partnership with the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association and the South African Wind Energy Association. The 2025 edition secured a record 673 responses, up from 483 in 2024, and the results will be available on the NTCSA website. The responses point to there being 220 GW of potential renewables capacity at various stages of development nationwide, including over 72 GW classified as being at an advanced development level. These so-called 'Type A' developments are projects that have secured an environmental approval, where feasibility studies have been completed and where the facility could enter into commercial operation within three years should it be able to secure a grid connection. When releasing the survey results, NTCSA strategic grid planning manager Ronald Marais reported that the SAREGS had become an important planning tool and a key input into the Transmission Development Plan (TDP). The TDP is also updated yearly and outlines the powerlines and substations that will be added or strengthened over a ten-year horizon. The 2025 SAREGS results once again confirm solar PV as the leading technology under development currently, comprising 121 GW of the 220 GW pipeline, up from 76 GW in the 2024 survey. Respondents also indicated that more than 83 GW (49 GW) of wind is under development, as well as 82 GW (44 GW) of battery storage, mostly with four hours of storage. Some of the battery projects are standalone in nature, but many are linked to solar PV and even wind projects. While the geographical spread was broad-based, the Northern Cape continued to attract the most interest from developers with 48 GW of responses. Apart from Gauteng, the scale of developments in all other regions also grew, with the pipeline in the Hydra Central and the Free State regions rising to 31 GW (19 GW) and 27 GW (20 GW) respectively. These regions were followed by Mpumalanga (21 GW), Eastern Cape (21 GW), Western Cape (20 GW), North West (18 GW), Limpopo (18 GW), Gauteng (7 GW) and KwaZulu-Natal (4 GW). Respondents also continue to show interest in South Africa's public procurement programme, particularly in the near term. But the majority of projects were being geared towards private offtake opportunities, including through traders, or a combination of public and private opportunities. A significant number of survey respondents also registered an interest in providing ancillary services, including reserves, black-start capabilities, reactive voltage supply and voltage control. Given the importance of grid availability to the projects actually proceeding, some participants used the virtual launch to underline the need for the NTCSA to follow up the SAREGS with an updated Grid Capacity Connection Assessment to provide information on how much new electricity generation could be connected to the national grid. No firm deadline was provided for such a release, though. However, in response to a question about what the SAREGS meant in relation to the updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), Marais said the results indicated that the renewables and battery components of the IRP could be "more than adequately addressed".