THE GREAT DELEVERAGING — WHY THE NEXT CRISIS WILL BE WORSE THAN 2008 скачать в хорошем качестве

THE GREAT DELEVERAGING — WHY THE NEXT CRISIS WILL BE WORSE THAN 2008

The next major deleveraging event will be significantly more severe than 2008. This is not speculation—it's mathematical reality based on leverage levels that have compounded since the last crisis. I've studied financial crises for decades, and we did not solve the problems that caused 2008. We postponed them through massive monetary and fiscal intervention. Global debt now exceeds $315 trillion, roughly 65% higher than 2008 levels. We took a leverage crisis and solved it by adding more leverage. This only works as long as interest rates stay low and asset prices keep rising. When those conditions reverse, consequences are amplified by the increased debt burden. Zombie companies that cannot cover interest from profits represent 15-20% of publicly traded companies. Private equity manages over $13 trillion, much in highly leveraged buyouts at peak valuations. Commercial real estate has lost 30-40% of value while debt remains on bank balance sheets. Government debt exceeds $35 trillion with interest payments consuming over $1 trillion annually. The policy tools that rescued the system in 2008 are either unavailable or far less effective. Governments exhausted fiscal space. Central banks start from 5% rates, not zero, with limited room to cut without reigniting inflation.