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Why Has The Economy Performed So Much Better Under Democratic Presidents?

The President of the United States isn’t meant to have much influence on the United State’s economy. Despite this fact, when we look at the US economy starting from the years that economic data has been available, we see an interesting and unmistakable fact: the US economy performs better when a Democrat is in the Oval Office instead of a Republican. While this isn’t a secret (economic data is all publicly available), it isn’t as well known as it should be. But why does this difference is economic performance exist? That’s what economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson tried to find in their 2015 paper, Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration. In this video, I go over their research paper and expand on their work by updating the analysis with recent data. CORRECTIONS: 1. The p-values listed mistakenly have a '%' sign at the end of them, please ignore these. 2. At 6:34, it should say "Nonfarm" instead of "Nonformer". 3. At 16:15, I say "56%" instead of "50.6%". It is 56% if we use party-specific lag weights in the regression, but the regression shown in the video was with common lag weights. If you found this video insightful, please consider giving it a like and subscribe to the channel! All opinions are my own (unless otherwise stated). NOT financial advice. **Join our new Discord Channel!**   / discord   Read this video in my Substack post: https://open.substack.com/pub/theecon... 🔗 LINKS: Main source: https://www.princeton.edu/~mwatson/pa... Other sources: https://pastebin.com/ekv0yGZf Everything in this video can be verified using publicly available data from FRED. I have attached the Excel file that I used to calculate most of the analysis here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/... 👋 FOLLOW MY SOCIALS: Substack: https://theeconomicsdispatch.substack... Discord:   / discord   Twitter:   / adamw_23   😀 WHO AM I? Good question! You shouldn’t immediately trust what a random guy on the internet says when you don’t know their credentials or who they are - seems like there’s a new economics/finance YouTube channel popping up everyday 🤨 My name is Adam, and I’ve been a public sector economist for more than 3 years, and an economics tutor for more than 5 years. I also have a Bachelors degree in Economics. My aim for this channel is to inspire curiosity in economics! I want to explore interesting economic ideas and opinions. If you’re interested, please subscribe to the channel! Chapters: 0:00 Intro 1:34 Defining The D-R Gap 6:01 But Wait, There's More! 9:39 Is It Really The President? 14:14 Explaining The D-R Gap Key words: President, President Biden, President Trump, President Obama, Democrat, Republican, Election, US Election, Economy, US Economy, Politics, US Politics, Does the president control the economy, Does the president influence the economy, Does the president impact the economy, How much does the president affect the economy, Inflation, Recession, Economic Growth, Economic Data, Election, Congress, Live Election Result, News, Stock Market, CNBC, US News, Joe Biden, White House, Donald Trump, News Live, Live News, United States, Money, Elections, Trump, Economics, Economic Growth, Economics, WSJ, Economics Explained