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Using Monte Carlo to Predict When Work Will Be Done

In a previous episode I showed you, how the Cycle Time Scatterplot can be used to predict when a specific item on your Kanban board might be completed. But what exactly do you do when you want to know how long it will take to complete a complex project with say 100 work items? You might think that if you know the average throughput of completed items per time period, you could use this to figure out how many time units it would take to complete 100 items...and so on... ... and this would lead you to precisely the wrong answer! Why this is so and how you should use the Monte Carlo simulation in Kanbanize to find a valid answer, is the topic of my next episode. [Note: This is video was first released in 2020 as an episode of the "Xuviate Business Agility Daily".]