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Estimating is difficult. So difficult, in fact, that many consider it a waste of time. Which it wouldn’t be if estimates were done efficiently and were accurate. Instead, many teams either manoeuvre around estimating by using bogus units such as story points, or avoid it completely by using #NoEstimates or Kanban. Your team can improve the quality of their estimates by improving their estimation process. Software developers learn to optimise their systems using performance profiling. We can find scientifically validated and useful tools for profiling the estimation process if we take the novel and radical approach of viewing estimation from the perspective of psychology and psychometrics. In this talk, we approach the concept of an estimate as a latent construct, and explore the application of tools and techniques from psychology and psychological statistics to the analysis and improvement of the estimation process. If you’re wondering why your team’s estimates are off, and what you can do to improve them, this talk is for you. This talk was recorded at Craft Conference 2024. The event was organized by CraftHub. You can watch the rest of the conference talks on our channel. If you are interested in more speakers, tickets and details of the conference, check out our website: https://craft-conf.com/ If you are interested in more events from our company: https://crafthub.events/