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Cracks, Crude, Water, Food

Recorded Wednesday, March 4, as U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran were still unfolding — Mohit and Alex break down the market dynamics and what it means for participants across the sector. The immediate pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint. When insurers pulled coverage for vessels transiting the region, tanker traffic dropped sharply — effectively stalling a significant share of global oil supply. Iraq compounded the disruption by curtailing production and halting a key pipeline export route. Crude benchmarks spiked to start the week before stabilizing Wednesday, after the Trump administration announced an insurance backstop and potential naval escorts through the Strait. The conversation also covers product markets — specifically diesel. They also cover what could reverse this move: sanctioned barrels already on the water, China sitting on substantial onshore inventories, a larger-than-expected OPEC increase, and Kazakhstan supply coming back online. A market that flipped from net short to net long in days could see a sharp reversal if the geopolitical situation de-escalates. ---------------------------------------- Watch or listen atwww.mobiusriskgroup.com/podcast/cracks-crude-water-food 📧 Questions or want to talk through what this means for your portfolio: mailto:podcast@mobiusriskgroup.com This commentary reflects the views of Mobius Risk Group and is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.