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#7 Nouriel Roubini

In this special episode of In The Harbor, Jason Johns and Scott Lindsay are joined by one of the most influential macroeconomists of our time—Dr. Nouriel Roubini. Known for his prescient views on global risks and financial crises, Dr. Roubini brings decades of policy, academic, and investment experience to the conversation. Together, they unpack today’s complex macro environment—touching on everything from debt sustainability and geopolitical instability to the transformative impact of AI and technology. Most importantly, they connect the dots for financial advisors and investors: how do these global dynamics translate to real-world portfolio construction? Dr. Roubini is CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, and Co-Founder of Rosa & Roubini Associates. He has advised the White House, the U.S. Treasury, and served as a professor of economics at NYU and Yale. This is a must-listen for anyone looking to better understand the forces shaping our economic future—and how to navigate them with clarity and confidence. 00:00 In The Harbor Podcast: Dr. Nouriel Roubini on Megathreats, Markets, and Portfolio Defense 01:48 Why Roubini Studied Economics: Oil Shocks, Geopolitics, and Inequality 04:20 Cambridge UK vs Cambridge MA: Harvard, MIT, and Economic Worldviews 05:54 Political Business Cycles: Elections, Partisanship, Inflation, and Jobs 09:00 From Academia to Policy: IMF, World Bank, White House, and U.S. Treasury 10:35 Asian Crisis to Russia Default to LTCM: How Financial Contagion Spreads 13:05 Megathreats Book: Forecasting, Crisis Frameworks, and the Bond Vigilantes 16:10 Fiscal Policy and Market Discipline: When Politicians Have to Blink 19:11 Midterms, Recession Calls, and Why Roubini Stayed Contrarian 21:53 How He Saw 2008 Coming: Securitization Incentives and Conflicts of Interest 23:40 Underestimated Risk: AI Upside and Downside, Inequality, and Disinformation 28:32 Unintended Consequences: When “Solutions” Create New Macro Risks 31:19 Atlas Capital: Turning Megathreats into an Investment Framework 33:10 Tech Trumps Tariffs: The Case for 4 Percent U.S. Growth by 2030 36:21 Europe Stagnation Risk: Slowly, Then Suddenly 38:30 Macro Defense Framework: Three C’s and Inflation Regimes 40:15 Why 60 40 Breaks: Inflation, Duration Risk, and Stock Bond Correlation 44:47 USAF ETF Portfolio: Short Treasuries, TIPS, Gold, Ags, REITs, and Hedges 49:55 Defensive Allocation: Hedging Many Risks, Not One Binary Bet 52:14 Advice for Financial Advisors: Scenario Analysis and Risk Control 59:41 Framing Uncertainty Without Fear: Realism Over Doom 1:01:43 Rapid Fire: Favorite Travel Destination, Italy vs Bhutan 1:04:16 Biggest Source of Optimism: AI and the Tech of the Future 1:05:56 How Roubini Resets: Travel, Culture, Food, and Time Away from Macro 1:07:14 Closing and Subscribe: Like, Share, and Follow In The Harbor