A 34-year retrospective assessment of USFS post-fire reforestation projects in the western US скачать в хорошем качестве

A 34-year retrospective assessment of USFS post-fire reforestation projects in the western US

We conducted a retrospective assessment (1986–2023) of USFS post-fire reforestation projects to evaluate whether historical planting patterns align with policy to close the national reforestation gap, while also assessing the potential of spatial optimization tools to strengthen that alignment. To do this, we develop a quantitative framework to prioritize reforestation based on where planting is (1) necessary to maintain forest cover (e.g. where seed limitation prevents natural recovery), (2) likely to succeed (e.g. where climate can support establishment), and (3) where its operationally feasible (e.g. proximal to roads). We then use spatial optimization to compare simulated plantings to USFS replanting projects. Whereas most sites the USFS planted after fires (61%) were in locations predicted to naturally regenerate, our simulations found sites in the same fires with lower seed availability (mean difference: 21%) and natural regeneration potential (mean difference: 22%). Our study exposes some of the trade-offs and constraints resource managers must navigate when making planting decisions and demonstrates the utility of a spatially optimized decision support framework for reforestation planning. Presented by Solomon Dobrowski, PhD, as part of the 2026 FFERAL Lecture Series