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How an arcane rule helps justify destructive highway projects: • How an arcane rule helps justify destructi... Additional info about Idea #4: Adjusting Lot Regulations - • Can We Fix Zoning By Tweaking a Few Numbers? Methodology: To estimate 49-year sales tax revenue, I used 2022 historical revenue numbers from City of Fort Smith and calculated how much the average parcel contributes to the city’s two road maintenance funds. Since sales tax revenue is not publicly-available, I calculated this as a function of the property’s property tax bill. For expenses, I looked at road projects (actual and budgeted) to calculate the cost of new construction, repaving, and reconstruction. This methodology has a lot of conjectures that lose accuracy over time. This is mostly due to a lack of public information around sales tax figures, but there are other factors outside of my control like inflation or changing demographics that I could not control for. I don’t use the industry-standard of dollar value per acre, I used dollar per foot of frontage. My results paint a much rosier picture for Ft. Smith than a $/acre model would have since I didn’t factor in the costs of arterial roads, which a $/acre model is better at capturing, and if a property is really long and skinny, it can tend to make a property look much more profitable for the city than it really is. My model also underestimates the revenue produced by lower-value homes and overestimates the value of higher-value homes. My model also favors newer construction and recently-sold properties over more well-established properties. I am aware of all of these deficiencies, but this was a deliberate choice on my part because (1) I wanted to focus solely on the cost of roads and not the value of space, and (2) produce the most favorable results to prove my hypothesis (that Fort Smith is losing money in the long-term), wrong. But even with these steps to prove my hypothesis wrong, my results for Ft. Smith largely follow the same results that Urban3’s case studies found in similar cities. Additionally, I did not map out the entire city. I collected a wide range of property types and chose the places that I thought would be most interesting for this video and to illustrate my point. This was not a survey so a random sample was not necessary, each parcel can be studied independently, and can only be studied independently because I assign property tax revenue to all types of real estate, but not all properties pay sales tax. If you’re interested in finding out the efficiency for your home or business, email movinginthefort@gmail.com and I can plug it into my spreadsheet.