The Unintended Consequences of Ignoring Evacuee Response скачать в хорошем качестве

The Unintended Consequences of Ignoring Evacuee Response

S.M.V. Gwynne – Movement Strategies - FEMTC 2018 Post: https://www.femtc.com/events/2018/d2-... It is critical to be skeptical of computational evacuation models – as it is with all modelling efforts. However, it is just as important to understand what constitutes a model. This presentation covers various approaches to modelling. The key is that skepticism and curiosity is maintained (or increased) but applied to all modelling endeavours. The Conceptual Model of Evacuee Response Testing the basic understanding –logic, but also scope, refinement, moderation, translation, etc. The benefits and dangers of an analogy Example: The Procedural Implications of Adopting Different Conceptual Models Deductive Approaches At a very minimum – for Scenario Development State initial assumptions (based on conceptual understanding) and derive consequences that follow Example: The Impact of Social Groups on Large Crowds Inductive Approaches – The Bread and Butter of computational modelling Projecting outcomes with a reasonable degree of confidence based on the credibility of our conceptual understanding and the process by which it translates initial conditions to a future projected state. Importance of understanding the active agents and the modes by which emergent conditions are produced – agent decision-making and agent interaction Example: The stages of evacuee interaction with emergency signs Abductive Approaches – Pragmatic attempts to develop candidate explanations Imperfect by definition – affirming the consequent by design Assessing behavioural explanations by bounding the conditions Demonstration: Testing candidate explanations The cascading impact of evacuation models on fire modelling The evil door and its pervasive impact on outcomes For more information and videos from FEMTC 2018, please visit our website at http://www.thunderheadeng.com/femtc-2018