Supply Chain Lessons from Financial Markets (with Peter Cotton) - Ep 139 скачать в хорошем качестве

Supply Chain Lessons from Financial Markets (with Peter Cotton) - Ep 139

Probabilistic forecasting might still be novel in supply chains, but it has been commonplace in financial markets for decades, helping savvy investors navigate the treacherous waters of securities trading. This early adoption brings critical insights for supply chain, and Peter Cotton was kind to join us and outline them. Senior VP and Chief Data Scientist at Intech Investment Management, Peter explains the roles of volatility and rationality in investment decision-making, as well as unpacking how some people manage to beat the stock market. The utility of forecasting competitions, such as the recent M6 (in which Peter placed in the top 10), is also explored, and Joannes shares valuable insights into the problems facing supply chain practitioners when it comes to the adoption of probabilistic forecasting. ****** 00:00 Introduction and Peter’s background. 01:22 Peter’s performance at the recent M6 competition. 03:21 What was the theme of the M6? 04:42 What distinguished Peter’s entry? 08:10 Attitudes to volatility and uncertainty in financial markets and supply chain. 12:24 Buzzwords versus simplicity in forecasting. 18:06 Academic integrity in mathematical models (p-hacking). 23:26 Rationality and ruthless efficiency in financial markets. 28:25 Different mechanisms for discovering reliable future information. 32:23 Example of forecasting insanity in supply chains. 37:32 Discipline, gambling and feedback loops in predictive accuracy. 50:39 Cultural obstacles within supply chain. 56:30 Is it possible to beat the market? ****** Check out our website: https://www.lokad.com/ Follow us on LinkedIn:   / lokad   ******