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Crisis means strong dollar? Post strike rule breaks ① USD/JPY and USD/CHF as Risk Gauges, but No Guaranteed Dollar Supremacy Following the U.S.–Israel strike on Iran, the first clear FX reaction appeared in the Japanese yen (JPY) and Swiss franc (CHF). These currencies typically strengthen during geopolitical shocks as leveraged positions unwind and investors seek traditional safe havens. Declines in USD/JPY or USD/CHF therefore signal genuine risk-off positioning in global markets. However, the current environment differs because the U.S. dollar itself carries a policy and credibility risk premium tied to fiscal uncertainty and Federal Reserve independence concerns. As a result, the conventional equation of “crisis equals absolute dollar strength” is less reliable. Even in a risk-off phase, the dollar may not uniformly outperform other safe-haven currencies, reflecting a structural shift in how investors price safety. Subscribing, liking, and turning on notifications truly mean a lot. Thanks to your support, this channel can keep moving forward calmly. I’ll keep preparing each video with care, without rushing. Feel free to drop by whenever you have a moment. I hope we can keep going together, slowly and steadily.